{"id":13500,"date":"2016-09-30T09:42:01","date_gmt":"2016-09-30T09:42:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/algerienetwork.com\/economie\/?p=13500"},"modified":"2020-06-18T10:03:49","modified_gmt":"2020-06-18T10:03:49","slug":"opep-comment-lalgerie-a-obtenu-un-accord-historique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/algerienetwork.com\/economie\/opep-comment-lalgerie-a-obtenu-un-accord-historique\/","title":{"rendered":"OPEP: comment l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie a obtenu un accord historique"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Aussi inattendu qu\u2019inesp\u00e9r\u00e9, l\u2019accord de r\u00e9duction de production sign\u00e9 mercredi par les pays de l\u2019OPEP fait monter les cours du brut, et flamber les majors p\u00e9troli\u00e8res en bourse. M\u00eame si la route reste longue avant sa concr\u00e9tisation, c\u2019est l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie qui aura marqu\u00e9 un point d\u00e9cisif dans ces n\u00e9gociations.
\nC\u2019est un tour de force incroyable qu\u2019a sans doute r\u00e9alis\u00e9 Noureddine Boutarfa, ministre alg\u00e9rien de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. Alors que personne sur les march\u00e9s n\u2019y croyait, il a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 pousser \u00e0 la signature d\u2019un accord sur une r\u00e9duction de production des pays producteurs de p\u00e9trole de l\u2019OPEP, et concilier des positions qui paraissaient inconciliables il y a encore 24 heures.
\nL\u2019Iran avait attaqu\u00e9 la r\u00e9union sur des positions claires: aucun accord ne serait sign\u00e9 sans que le pays puisse renouer avec ses quotas de production d\u2019avant la p\u00e9riode des sanctions \u00e9conomiques qui ont touch\u00e9 le pays, \u00e0 savoir 13% de la production du cartel.
\nFin de la strat\u00e9gie traditionnelle saoudienne?
\nL\u2019Arabie Saoudite, fid\u00e8le \u00e0 sa position de statu quo tant que l\u2019Iran ne se joignait pas \u00e0 l\u2019initiative, ne paraissait pas du tout favorable \u00e0 un geste elle non plus. Sa strat\u00e9gie solitaire, m\u00eame si elle commence \u00e0 avoir un vrai impact sur les rentr\u00e9es budg\u00e9taires du Royaume, semblait in\u00e9branlable.
\nMalgr\u00e9 tout, les observateurs sentaient ces derni\u00e8res semaines que les positions semblaient s\u2019adoucir. Le premier pas d\u00e9cisif fut un accord entre Arabie Saoudite et Russie (non-OPEP), pour pr\u00e9parer le terrain au minimum \u00e0 un gel de leur production sur les niveaux actuels.
\nTalent de n\u00e9gociation<\/strong>
\nL\u2019Arabie Saoudite, de toute \u00e9vidence, et malgr\u00e9 les d\u00e9clarations de fa\u00e7ade, arrivait \u00e0 Alger avec un compromis dans ses bagages. Consciente \u00e9galement qu\u2019un geste symbolique pourrait installer une dynamique positive pour les prix, et donc positive pour sa propre \u00e9conomie.
\nLe reste du chemin a \u00e9t\u00e9 parcouru gr\u00e2ce au talent de n\u00e9gociateur du ministre alg\u00e9rien. Ce dernier a savamment pr\u00e9par\u00e9 le terrain et attaqu\u00e9 la semaine par des d\u00e9clarations tr\u00e8s fermes: \u00ab\u00a0Si le cours du p\u00e9trole se maintient en-dessous des 50 dollars le baril, aucune compagnie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, m\u00eame les plus importantes d\u2019entre elles, ne pourra r\u00e9sister\u00a0\u00bb a-t-il dit en ouverture de la r\u00e9union d\u2019Alger.
\n\u00ab\u00a0Un consensus pour piloter le march\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong>
\nIl a donc convaincu l\u2019Iran de faire un geste, ne serait-ce que symbolique, en acceptant le principe d\u2019une r\u00e9duction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de la production des pays de l\u2019OPEP. Elle sera symbolique dans un premier temps, 700.000 barils par jour sur un total de 33 millions au maximum. Avec l\u2019argument que rien n\u2019emp\u00eachera l\u2019Iran de renouer avec ses quotas d\u2019il y a quelques ann\u00e9es si le pays le souhaite.
\nCe que l\u2019Iran a accept\u00e9, en soulignant le caract\u00e8re \u00ab\u00a0historique\u00a0\u00bb de l\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nement. Le ministre iranien du p\u00e9trole, Bijan Zanganeh a salu\u00e9 cet accord, qui intervient \u00ab\u00a0apr\u00e8s deux ans et demi de blocage. Nous avons d\u00e9sormais atteint un consensus pour piloter le march\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb, se f\u00e9licite-t-il.
\nMise en place complexe<\/strong>
\nD\u2019autant que d\u00e9sormais, on s\u2019achemine vers la phase de mise en place de ces accords, \u00e0 savoir la r\u00e9partition de ces quotas de production r\u00e9vis\u00e9s entre pays de l\u2019OPEP, lors de la prochaine r\u00e9union de fin novembre. On peut d\u2019ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 s\u2019attendre \u00e0 d\u2019\u00e2pres discussions, et sans doute \u00e0 de nouveaux blocages.
\nUn accord et de nouvelles perspectives auxquels devront s\u2019adjoindre aussi les pays non-membres du cartel. Avec un a priori positif, tant les prix actuels sont en train de chambouler les \u00e9conomies et les perspectives budg\u00e9taires chez les producteurs.
\nInfluence croissante de l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie
\nMais de l\u2019avis g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, un grand pas vient d\u2019\u00eatre franchi, et une vraie impulsion a \u00e9t\u00e9 donn\u00e9e. Si le geste n\u2019est que symbolique, l\u2019impact devrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00eatre sensible sur le court terme. Goldman Sachs estime que sa mise en \u0153uvre devrait faire grimper les prix de 7 \u00e0 10 dollars le baril d\u00e8s le 1er semestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine. Donc stabiliser clairement les cours au-dessus de 50 dollars.
\nEt les observateurs saluent le r\u00f4le majeur de diplomatie que vient de jouer l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie dans cette phase importante. Son r\u00f4le de conciliateur et son poids au sein de l\u2019OPEP se voient renforc\u00e9s, apr\u00e8s la signature de cet accord surprise d\u2019Alger.
\nPar Antoine Larigaudrie<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aussi inattendu qu\u2019inesp\u00e9r\u00e9, l\u2019accord de r\u00e9duction de production sign\u00e9 mercredi par les pays de l\u2019OPEP fait monter les cours du brut, et flamber les majors p\u00e9troli\u00e8res en bourse. M\u00eame si la route reste longue avant sa concr\u00e9tisation, c\u2019est l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie qui aura marqu\u00e9 un point d\u00e9cisif dans ces n\u00e9gociations. C\u2019est un tour de force incroyable qu\u2019a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13587,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[610],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-13500","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energies"},"yoast_head":"\nOPEP: comment l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie a obtenu un accord historique - Algerie Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/algerienetwork.com\/economie\/opep-comment-lalgerie-a-obtenu-un-accord-historique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"OPEP: comment l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie a obtenu un accord historique - Algerie Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aussi inattendu qu\u2019inesp\u00e9r\u00e9, l\u2019accord de r\u00e9duction de production sign\u00e9 mercredi par les pays de l\u2019OPEP fait monter les cours du brut, et flamber les majors p\u00e9troli\u00e8res en bourse. 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